Reposted from The NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 18. April 2021
It’s been a really frosty April this year across Central Europe. Germany so far has seen it’s second coldest April since records began in 1881.
Hat-tip: Snowfan
Coldest since 1917
April across much of Europe has been unusually cold, frosty and even snowy, and the media have been awfully quiet about it. The following chart shows the mean temperature anomalies with respect to the 1991-2020 reference period so far (up through April 17):
With a mean temperature of 4.5°C for Germany, April so far continues to be the second coldest since 1881, according to German DWD national weather service records. Only 1917 was colder at a mean of 4.3°C.
Another cold blast forecast for next weekend
And it likely isn’t going to change too much, as the ECMWF model is forecasting yet another unusual April cold wave with snow and frost for next week. A warm up is forecast near the end of the month, but that is still some 10 days out.
Most snowy April in 35 years
One thing is already certain: For Germans, it will be the most snowy April since 1986 – video.
The WO/GFS forecasts (left and right) see a continuation of the April winter with widespread ground frost from April 23. Extremely cold air with up to -12°C deviations from the old WMO climate mean 1981-2010 over Germany is projected on April 26 at 850 hPa. Sources: WO/GFS forecasts Tmin ground Germany and WZ/GEM forecasts TA850 Europe.
Northern hemisphere cooling continues
The German media recently claimed that “the global warming continues”, but the NCEP GFS run of April 18 shows a temperature anomaly of near zero.
Chart source: 2m-temperatures global 7 day trend
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Global Warming, let’s spent $150 Trillion fighting CO2 the most important trace gas of life!
There is something going on it may need a good look into. Since beginning of the month the majority of the polar stratosphere
(30 hPa and below) is at its coldest ever recorded.
We have had a very quiet Sun and our Earth’s magnetic field is ebbing. Maybe as the Sun wakes up the solar wind will warm it back up some. When you are way at the top of the atmosphere, energetic particles coming inbound from the Sun matter.
With the St Vincent volcano going off, the first meaningful injection of SO2 into the upper atmosphere in quite some time has happened. Other volcanoes are beginning to stir. We’ve enjoyed all the warmth put into the Earth the past few decades from the very active Sun; maybe now it’s time to endure the flip side.
Well don’t forget about the Taal eruption around 15 months ago, there was definitely SO2 injected into the Stratosphere and the Australian brushfires put a lot of particulate matter in the Stratosphere.
I think I read there is currently 50 active volcanos around the world.
Careful with what you wish for…
Since you mention ‘ quiet Sun’, for a long while I have not seen anything from our solar supremo Dr. Leif Svalgaard. The latest reference I found is an abstract submitted for the the general assembly of the European Geosciences Union, starting today, so it appears Dr, Svalgaard is well and still working hard at young age of 79, 50 years of which at Stanford University.
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-282.html
It would be great if he makes an appearance and adds some comments. Maybe WUWT can put out an article on current solar activity (he usually comments on these).
Finding road isn’t easy, let’s hope ‘third time lucky’ for the snowplough driver
today’s photo
The other day I posted a deep snow clearing photo from north Monte Negro.
Regretfully since then they have another 120 cm (4 ft) of fresh snow, as seen on the photo taken earlier today
That’s cool, Vuk. No pun intended.
I live in the upper northeast corner of Illinois. Snow is in our forecast for Tuesday day and night and for Wednesday AM. Nothing special, but awfully late in the year. The geese are NOT happy campers!
Please do NOT ignore Iceland’s baby volcano, which now has FIVE (count ’em) vents, all of which emit really nasty gases along with lava flows, and they’re all lined up in a row.
All babies tend to be gassy. And this particular baby sits right smack dab on the mid-Atlantic ridge.
Please put a date on “ever”. The chart shows two years and there is no time frame as far as I can see for establishing the mean! Does a time frame of two years warrant the descriptor “evah”?
The North Atlantic has no large cold anomalies:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/04/18/1200Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-38.24,28.05,461/loc=-19.338,16.766
The 30C tropical warm pools are not yet persistent but July is when the SST usually reaches the regulating limit in the Tropical North Atlantic.
Rick,
The area between two extremes covers all years from 1979 to 2021, so it is indeed ‘ever recorded’.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
here is the first year of records
the rest of years are elsewhere in the shaded area on the graph, while current records are in red
Rick
Only red line covers more than 12 months, the rest of the records is only 12 calendar months and is repeated over again. Compare shaded areas for 2020 and 2021, you will see they are identical.
NOAA web page:
“The values for the current year (bold red line) may be compared to the average values for each day (green) and the extreme maximum and minimum values for the entire temperature analysis record from 1979 through the most recent complete calendar year, (bounding upper and lower black lines).”
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
so whats the ozone areas doing?
they always grow when it supercold up high I notice
they love using that as claims of pollution, not natural events
To difficult to tell, most likely goes against narrative, hence ‘no comment’ from NASA
https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/monthly/NH.html
You typically can have some strong late season cooling after early winter Major Warmings during low solar times. 2006 and 2009 come to mind. 2013 was somewhat similar strat’ wise in early winter but higher solar. Also had transitioning QBO phase change. Everything needs to be considered. State of ENSO etc..06′ and ’09 had El Nino’s form…’97 as well
Recent warming push is not a coincidence in regards to what we are seeing in the stratosphere and a few other variables. The 2020 La Nina had a firm grip on the oceanic and atmospheric state so it makes transitions tougher. At least early season ones. The sun woke up again last night. Cycle 25 is developing right along. NH is behind but things seem to be possibly changing. Everything is still on the table, ENSO wise. August is a key time frame in my opinion.
Sun woke up last week but yesterday decided to get out of bed
http://sidc.oma.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
OK Vuk I’ll look into it the day after tomorrow
A near infinite gold mine for the “clean energy” industrial complex and its flunky supporters in government and academia seeking funding on a vast scale. Nothing less than a rapid advance of continental glaciers will change their minds and probably not even that.
Still no cure for stupid.
The cure is to redefine stupid as smart, and vice versa. Mission accomplished.
Don’t worry. Cold weather is attributable to global warming. But as any outcome is consistent with global warming, it just doesn’t mean anything useful.
Get with the program. It’s “climate change”. Global warming is now climate change….because it’s too obvious the globe isn’t warming.
Expecting 3 inches of snow tomorrow in eastern Kansas. May set records. Spring is very slow this year.
I am in northeastern Kansas and have been for 30 years. Have seen all kinds of weird weather here. I can remember 3″ of snow in early May about ten years ago. This isn’t the first time Spring has been slow in coming. More than once, we have gone from Winter to Summer with no Spring.
Well, that just means the temperature adjusters are going to raise temperatures in the Arctic, Antarctic, Central Africa and Siberia where temperature sensors are few and urban areas where temperature sensors are installed near buildings and asphalt.
That way they can keep the alleged global anomaly high.
It’s forever the hottest month evah!
An old joke: A man on top of a London bus is tearing up a newspaper and throwing bits out of the window. Asked what’s he doing he replies: “it keeps the elephants away”. “But there aren’t any elephants in central London.” He says, “Yes, effective isn’t it!”
Now the climate warriors throw taxpayers money out of the window to keep the climate crisis away. But there isn’t any climate crisis. “Effective isn’t it” they claim.
They’ll have some ‘splainin’ to do on how the Mauna Kea atmospheric CO2 levels (earth’s gold standard) continue on their steady, naturally-occurring increase…
The steadily increasing EV battery fires counteract the greenhouse effect of CO2 with the cooling effect/albedo effect of lithium carbonate particulates. Obviously.
Remember to fight climate change in an all out battle in a lightning attack without proper winter gear. Operation Barbarossa cost how many casualties?
Hard to quantify.
“Lots” is my guess
Then the return favor of Bagration
Cannot be too many casualties in the great climate wars, more the better is the whole point I think
The lack of winter clothing was a feature, not a bug, of the German invasion.
Hitler knew that if the German army began to manufacture winter uniforms, Stalin would know about it. He had spies everywhere in Europe and in the USA.(He knew what was was being shipped to Los Alamos, for example. He had accurate data on US war production, thanks to the communists in the USA in the labor movement. But, back to Russia.) The obvious lack of the Germans to prepare for a winter offensive was one of the main reason why Stalin was so sure that the Germans were not going to attack, and he ignored the information which suggested otherwise.
Hitler – quite reasonably – also believed he held another strategic advantage in eastern Europe. He thought eastern Poland, Finland, the Baltic Sea countries, White Russia, and Ukraine would revolt against Stalin once German armies entered their territories.
Just one problem with that idea – SS brigades quickly followed the Wehrmacht into those areas and murdered the local Jews, murdered the local intelligencia, and expropriated the local farmers.
It was not difficult for Stalin to convince the residents of those areas to stick with the Soviet evil they already knew, rather than exchange it for the unknown evil of Nazi Germany.
At the time of Barbarossa, the only Jews not already in Hitler’s clutches were in Russia. Hitler attacked Russia to get at their Jews, and he even diverted resources from the ordinary military to the SS in order to maximize the number of Jews killed. His priorities were not readily grasped by rational people. He may very likely have understood by this time that he could not win the war.
So Stalin had an eagle eye on clothing retail but missed 200 divisions gathered on his border! What a guy!
As if there weren’t already enough misery and suffering in Germany in April 1917. But at least its Air Force was enjoying success.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_April
… and before some smart@rse gets his knickers in a twist… yes, we know, it’s weather.
CB
…but if its a 12 degree excursion the other way it’s climate change…you know that…
Of course, goes without saying 😉
Around end of this week, a new cold snap will hit Germany again with snow up to the
end of April.
Three models:
In terms of global warming/latest nom-de-guerre, it’s as meaningless as last summer’s Siberian heatwave. The earth surface is a constantly changing pattern of areas above and below ‘normal’, sometimes a cold pool randomly sticks in one place, sometimes a hot, sometimes they repeatedly reinforce. This used to be known as random weather, a blocking pressure pattern etc.
No Texas sized headlines of catastrophic failure of electrical grid, no homeless freezing in the streets, no ultra high power bills … Germany must be doing something right to manage such a cold snap!
no ultra high power bills
It’s a joke, isn’t ?
Germany prices pretty low compared to $9,000 per megawatt-hour spot prices Texans endured during their cold snap
More to say ?
It is difficult to get a true rate for Texas due to the ability to contract with multiple companies, however the highest rate, a month to month contract, is around 1/2 of the rate in Germany.
Other plans run around 1/3 of the German prices.
And, as has been shown in articles here on WUWT, much of the problem in Texas was due to a shortage of natural gas likely caused by Obama EPA requirements for natural gas infrastructure converting from gas fueled to electric pumping. When the electricity was cut off, so was the gas supply it that area. A self fulfilling green result, fossil fuels FAILED!
I pay around 0.11 per KwH abd because I had a contract with fixed averaged rates I didn’t pay a dime extra for power during the freeze. It was the people seeking variable rates with small suppliers that got hammered just like with fixed rate a and variable rate montages, variables are great right up until they aren’t.
That graph is interesting. I’m in NE Illinois, price per KWh for electricity (just the power, am not including delivery) is $0.05835. Add in the transmission charge of $0.01216, and it comes to about $0.07+/- KWh. I’m not including the other stuff, but the monthly charge overall, including my use of my (brand new) gas furnace is about $41/month.
That’s just for winter and a very, very late spring. Summer won’t require the furnace (I hope!), so we’ll see what it comes to, but that’s just for my electric bill. Gas is through a different company.
Affordable, and it had better stay that way.
Spot prices are not to compare to household prices I spoke about
Germany has excellent foreign suppliers of electricity generated by coal and nuclear… they’re just located outside German borders. Germany simply outsourced its power supplies. At great cost.
Texas electric power is all generated within its borders.
In the state generated except for the wind which is still being installed.
If you look at the date from the Feb 8 storm, it was the collapse of wind power which caused the problems.
Yeah, it’s called coal, natural gas, a bit of nuclear and importing from your neighbours.
Yes, exactly, that (borrowing from neighbors and backup generating supply) is how Germany avoided outages and ultra high spot prices. Seems to be working well in Germany unlike Texas and California.
The green energy wind and solar often suffer from negative spot prices, that means Germany has to pay when Sizzerland or Austria take the surplus to fill their storage capacity – and pay once more, when they have a demand in case of windless an sunless days and nights.
One reason for our high prices.
Wait the coalplants finally shut down…….
Depends what you mean by “working well”.
Looks to me like Germany are painting themselves into a corner.
How would you feel if Putin’s hand was on your gas tap, just as you tie one arm behind your back by dismantling nuclear and coal plants?
Meanwhile the price of electricity, in an ever electrifying world, just keeps going up for your citizens.
Which hand would you prefer on the gas tap? So far Germany has a choice of Putin or Biden – Russian or American gas. Frankly, I’m not too sure I’d want Biden supplying my gas at this moment – he’s likely to turn it off for some political whim at a moment’s notice.
There are indeed more. But how many can guarantee bulk deliveries in quantities large enough to satisfy the power needs of an entire developed country whilst keeping costs down? Realistically it comes down to bulk sea shipments from America or piped in from Russia.
Germans will be fit people because human power will become an ever increasing means of doing things. Bicycles will replace automobiles. M-B are ahead of the game here:
https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/design/style/bicycle/
I figure the badge will add significantly to the cost.
Powering EVs will be only for the very wealthy and those connected to government.
RelPerm, the system is limping along for now, as long as there is enough power elsewhere to import.
What happens when the inevitable happens and a wind drought hits Germany, England and others at same time, a statistical certainty, after more coal and nuclear are shut in?
I can only hope this occurs in summer rather than winter, but it’s guaranteed it’s going to happen eventually
UK has the same problem.
Wind .. MIA
GAS carrying the load YET AGAIN, with help from Nuclear, Wood from the US…
and COAL !
It has been this way for well over a week. Those blocking highs.
Germany would expect to have regular periods of freezing weather, and make provisions for power supplies accordingly.
Texas on the other hand, is more your heat-waves kinda place, where keeping the aircon pumping would be the main concern.
(But yes they did get caught out badly by “following the science”. Perhaps from here on they will be guided by what history tells them, not models).
Probably should put this in perspective. The cold in Texas occurred in February and was one of the coldest snaps in the history of the State. Not the worst but one of the worst. Well below what was usually reache
The cold in Germany is one of the coldest Aprils but wouldn’t rate a second look if it occurred in January or February.
You can’t compare the two events. Texas was completely unprepared for a cold of that magnitude. Germany is completely prepared for this level of cold, just not in this month.
If you really want to compare the two, then compare Texas having one of its hottest Octobers in history with Germany having one of its coldest Aprils.
This is an April cold snap. Do we need to tell you about the difference between April and February?
yeah russian gas and imported nuke n other supply
OOPS.. Whole of the European grid on a knife-edge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid
You are comparing record low February temperatures in Texas to record low April temperatures in Germany.
Sorry, that is not serious.
Germany must be doing something right to manage such a cold snap!
Yes they’ve turned their coal fired power stations back on
And, meanwhile, the central US is under a Hard Freeze warning for Tuesday and Wednesday. All my fruit trees are in full bloom, as are all the orchards in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.
This will be our third year in a row with frost after the USDA “last frost by” date, here in the Southern Central Plains.
Are there any consequences (apart from the loss of credibility) for the groups making these failed predictions? Or do they simply get to predict ‘warmer than normal’ forever and ever?
Good enough for government work.
had consistent overnight freeze/frost at my house (Willamette valley Oregon) through the first half of April. Somewhat due to lack of usual cloud cover.
But consistent cold is consistent cold … three weeks of consistent overnight frost ending in the middle of April hasn’t happened in my memory.
Checking the official temp records shows the official overnight lows were all (but one) above freezing by 2 to 4 degrees F … but when I have to scrape the ice off the the windshield in the morning & the lawn is white, I am pretty sure it got below freezing at my house (about 5 miles from the official station).
It’s a CLIMATE CRISIS.
Weather, not climate.
But it demonstrates once again that geh weather varies by about 30°C everywhere, year on any given calendar date, year on year.
And AGW is only feared to cause 3°C warming in a century.
Thus, once again, coping with the weather means coping with a change that’s 10 x greater and 100 x faster than AGW worst-case.
If we just stick with adaptation to the weather we needn’t worry about mitigation. The impact of AGW is just too small to be noticed.
bUt ThA PoWlAr BeArS!!
If they die, who will be in our Coca-Cola commercials?!! Who will eat our seals?!?! Who will terrorize northern communities?!?!
Not to worry, Tom: the polar bears are mixing it up with the grizzlies so that there will be more grizzled polar bears available. Eventually, they’ll get it straightened out.
It’s clearly Globull Warming that caused Germany to get cold. How could there be any doubt?!
Yeah well. Be prepared for a monster Atlantic 2021 hurricane season. Weatherbell.com is forecasting as much as SIX TIMES the average hurricane season impact on the Gulf Coast, and parts of the southeast coast.
See the latest Saturday Summary video at Weatherbell.
OK. Your point is?
Just wondering.
So a late spring and then last year didn’t autumn come early. In the UK we were very close to the coldest August Bank Holiday weekend ever with people putting their heating on.
Winter 1981/2 started early in central Europe (1 metre of snow in the first week of November) and ended late (snow only left the valleys in late April in Austria).
These things happen: it’s neither global warming nor global cooling.
It’s once in a generation or so weather.
In 1982/3, winter arrived late in Austria and left relatively early.
These things happen….
Spring is sprung, the grass is riz
I wonder where the boidies is
They say the boid is on the wing
But that’s absoid, the wing is on the boid!
This poet would have had great fun with how absoid this global warming is.
I am fed up with this cold weather.
It is the second half of April, but my heating is running at the full force.
WHEN IS THIS WINTER OVER???
May 1st 82021….
Fortunately or unfortunately in Texas we got it all out of the way in one week.
Austin and Dallas are forecasted to reach all-time lows this week.
Wow, I guess 40 is pretty chilly for this time of year, not good for tomato plants.
Alex, you have not sacrificed a plate of really, really sharp cheddar with folded wheat crackers to Mother Nature, nor have you toasted the Old Gal with an inexpensive (cheap) but pleasant wine, and some grapes.
For shame.
You must do penance by creating a proper platter of cheese and crackers and garlic-stuffed olives and include a modest but perky red vintage from Toscana, and some grapes.
This does not include doing the mung bean dance in the moonlight and spooking your neighbors.
April 20, 2021 and the morning temp is wobbling between 34F and 33F. I am NOT a happy goose and duck photographer.
Alex. Ditto.
I live in the East Midlands of the UK and, the last two days in August 2020 (high summer) my heating came on automatically (set at 12C). This has never happened before that I can remember, and, like you in late(ish) April the heating is still on! I hope Global Warming kicks in soon!
OK, I can hear them now, “Don’t you know the difference between climate and weather?”
I think they should just declare victory and go home.
But one warmer day, it’s a climate crisis as never seen before 😀
Merkell brought in a 25 euro per tonne of carbon dioxide emissions released by the heating sector at start of year … so the government is laughing all the way to bank.
And? It isn’t the start of the new ice age or even a halt to warming.
And I remind all of the NoTricksZone total fail on the so called total wind and solar collapse in Gemrany in February, marked as ‘mostly false’ by fact checkers Snopes.
Fact checkers as you are ??? 😀 😀 😀
You display your gullibility by referencing snopes. Everyone knows they’re part of the propaganda machine. They’re Fact Cancellers, not fact checkers.
When did Snopes become fact checkers? Snopes is a libtard website that has never been trustworthy.
Many years ago (like 20ish) Snopes had a section of “fake” fact-checks that came with a warning that you shouldn’t trust anything just because you read it on the internet – including if you read it on Snopes.
I don’t think they have that warning anymore.
Snopes … “a fact checker”? Who’s checking Snopes?
“Wadda Maroon!”
By the same token, a spell of hot weather is not evidence for Global Warming. Agreed, Griff?
BTW, no one takes Snopes seriously.
Read the article again, shill. Snopes found no evidence to support the idea that there was a collapse of wind and solar, but neither did it find a single shred of evidence that any of the wind turbines or solar panels worked during that period. The article is full of words explaining that wind and solar could have worked maybe, and they are supposed to be able to work in those conditions without ever once offering proof that they did. The fact is that Snopes are lying by calling it ‘mostly false’ – just on the strength of the article it should have been ‘we don’t know’ or ‘ambiguous’ and on the strength of the evidence offered by the German energy sector (which Snopes conveniently ignored) it should have been ‘true’ or ‘mostly true’. And that last one is only offered to you as a fig-leaf.
And the last 2 super el ninos were weather events, as well. The 6-8 tenths of a degree in total temperature increase aren’t proof of AGW, either. They only proved that strong el ninos marginally raise the worldwide temperature.
And Snopes is a left-wing propaganda machine. They don’t decide the truth any more than Youtube or Facebook.
@Griff
“so called total wind and solar collapse”
I don’t think you understand how low unreliable energy generation gets sometimes, no greens do, at least not the ones I’ve encountered.
Look at the landscape of windmills (on and offshore) and solar, over a February week in Germany 2021.
Now do you understand why we call them unreliable? 🙁 (sad face might help I’m told)
This is German wind producing sweet FA
How’s that wind and solar going in the UK, griff-shill-moron !
Why do you continue to live your hole life as a TOTAL FAILURE ?
.
“It isn’t the start of the new ice age or even a halt to warming.”
How do you know? Where is your evidence or any supporting data
A supremely bold and confident statement, but I’m afraid it’s Ipse Dixit.
At most, argumentum ad ignoratium.
Poor griff.
PROVEN WRONG AGAIN.. or just LYING through his rear orifice. !
https://techstartups.com/2021/02/11/germanys-green-energy-failure-germany-turns-back-coal-natural-gas-millions-solar-panels-blanketed-snow-ice/
Please fix the minor typo in the subheading: its, not it’s.
That’s an error that appears here, there, and everywhere. It seems that no one cares. Perhaps WUWT could inspire others to correct this mistake.
Apostrophes’ were invented to be abused
I always thought an apostrophe was someone refusing to follow or recognise a religion. sarc
You sure? I thought they were apost-less.
Delightful! I hope the Germans push back against the Green blob.
Wishfull thinking 😀
Germans “pushing back”? You’re kidding, right? Those people are still electing Merkel.
Not sure if true in September…
According to CMIP 6 model projections, the global temp mean anomaly should be around 1.3C, but is currently at -0.01C (perhaps -0.2C by May) and will likely be -0.4C by this time next year if a double-dip La Niña occurs, which would be almost 6 standard deviations off from CMIP6 projections..
Even without a double-dip La Niña, global temp anomalies will consistently be well below two standard deviations CMIP 6 projections (+0.73C), and observed temp trends will be no where near the CMIP 6 model warming trend of 0.25C/decade (and projected to continuously increase)….
When the respective PDO and AMO cool cycles soon start, the CAGW scam will become even more of joke than it already is.
Yep. They’ll need to ‘adjust’ (lower) historical temperatures again so the models don’t look so broken.
Hi Sam,
My observation is that this catastrophic man-made global warming / green energy fraud was not just a scam by the warmist leadership for financial and political gain, it was also a deliberate program to cause the death of multitudes in the developed world through the destruction of vital energy systems – neo-Malthusians at play.
Best regards, Allan MacRae in Calgary
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/16/eia-u-s-co2-emissions-declined-11-in-2020-no-change-in-rising-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/#comment-3227850
Correct Joel, and highly alarming.
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group can be this wrong for this long – the climate alarmist, anti-fossil-fuel leadership clearly knew from the outset decades ago that they were engaged in large-scale genocide.
I wrote this comment about energy reality many years ago :
Fossil fuels comprise fully 85% of global primary energy, unchanged in decades, and unlikely to change in future decades.
The remaining 15% of global primary energy is almost all hydro and nuclear.
Eliminate fossil fuels tomorrow and almost everyone in the developed world would be dead in about a month from starvation and exposure.
Best, Allan
Low temperatures in the stratosphere – polar vortex will be active through the end of April in central Europe.
This is favored by an increase in solar wind speed.